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Author: Ric OConnell, February 18, 2025

Reflecting on the Challenges Ahead in 2025

 

We’re just a few weeks into 2025 despite it feeling like we’ve collectively lived through several months already. I managed to snatch a spare moment to reflect on what we learned in 2024 and what we can expect in 2025 with regards to clean energy.

The big story from 2024 is indisputable: clean energy can meet load growth, provide reliability, and reduce costs. We learned this from our two largest states: California and Texas. The story from Texas is powerful: Texas’s grid grew by 36% over the past four years, almost entirely from new wind, solar and storage, which doubled its share of clean energy from 23% to 42% – while coal declined sharply. Wholesale prices remained low, thanks to these new clean additions. This is what the energy transition looks like, and it’s happening in a state with as much electrical load as New York and California combined.

California didn’t have the same load growth as Texas, but the story there was how energy storage took a leading role in providing grid reliability and keeping prices low. California burned about a third less gas in 2024 than the year before, as batteries emerged as the primary reliability tool in CAISO’s toolbox and more solar came online. Battery storage now provides roughly 20% of California’s peak load, an incredible ramp from nearly nothing just five years ago.

While these two success stories are compelling, in other markets around the country the pressures of data center and manufacturing load growth are pushing regulators and utilities to respond. The standard response is that gas is the only resource that can provide the energy and capacity required by these new loads. Both PJM and MISO have proposals to allow gas to jump ahead of the gigawatt of clean resources waiting in interconnection queues along with similar proposals in Congress. Utilities are proposing exclusively gas solutions to new data center load, such as Entergy’s proposal to support Meta’s 2 GW datacenter in Louisiana. Our new Secretary of Energy declared an era of “Energy Dominance” that specifically excludes solar, wind and batteries in his first secretarial order released last week. The rush to gas is paired with a renewed interest in nuclear, with several bills being proposed at the state level to spur nuclear development (often using ratepayer funds), and more hype around small modular reactors and the handful of companies developing this technology.

I think many of these narratives may falter in 2025. First, the story around explosive and urgent data center growth is already cracking, as we saw with Deep Seek. While it’s clear data centers are coming, and the hyperscalers will make significant investments, there is also a lot of froth and speculation. Turbulence and uncertainty in Washington could slow economic growth, dampening the load growth rush. And counting on gas exclusively makes little sense when considering the reality that the interconnection queue today contains a small amount of gas ready for development alongside a strained supply chain (only 13 gigawatts nationwide).  As NextEra clearly stated in their latest earnings report, unplanned gas is not coming online until post 2030. This is precisely why we are seeing queue jumping proposals –  there just isn’t enough gas ready to deploy.  Wind, solar and storage are ready now, and cost competitive. The economic reality of speed combined with the dire need of the hyperscalers will dictate that we will bring new clean resources online to meet the moment. As for nuclear, while it could play a role in a reliable, carbon-free grid, it’s just not available in the near term.

This is GridLab’s approach in this turbulent time: focus on speed and affordability. We are about to release a major report on surplus interconnection detailing how we can get new clean resources online quickly by “sharing” the interconnection infrastructure of existing thermal assets. We have other turnkey tools in the toolbox as well– high performance conductors and GETs to upgrade transmission networks more quickly and efficiently. While the more complex and uncertain dynamics of our energy future evolve, it’s time to embrace near-term solutions that save us both money and time.

– Ric O’Connell, GridLab Executive Director

A New Online Look

GridLab’s newly redesigned website is live and ready to explore! With enhanced features and a fresh design, our site is now better equipped to keep you connected to the latest GridLab insights, projects, and updates. The expansion includes an updated media section bolstered by a new blog that we’ll be updating regularly, as well as more streamlined access to our project archive. We invite you to explore, engage, and join the conversation at gridlab.org or connect with us here.

Voices in Energy: Elaine Hart

Congratulations to Dr. Elaine Hart for the launch of Sylvan Energy Analytics, which Dr. Hart started last year with Ana Mileva, Founder of Blue Marble Analytics. GridLab has long relied on Dr. Hart’s deep knowledge of resource valuation, integrated resource planning, and resource adequacy to deliver comprehensive technical analyses and testimony to decision makers. Their new venture builds on a decade-long partnership, combining their expertise to offer open-source modeling solutions through GridPath, an advanced optimization-based grid analytics platform developed with support from GridLab. Outside of her work at Sylvan, Dr. Hart is also an active thought leader in the energy space, most recently joining us as a panelist during our Innovative Modeling webinar last year where she shared her insights on emerging tools for grid analysis.

Introducing the Innovative Modeling Series

GridLab is proud to launch a multi-part series called “Innovate: Alternative Modeling Approaches to Inform Power System Planning” that addresses current challenges for modeling the future power grid. The series showcases innovative modeling approaches developed by GridLab experts to address the increasing complexity of power system planning. The electric industry is facing challenges such as resource scarcity, load growth, increased weather risk, and the integration of renewable energy sources, which has made planning more complex. Electricity and grid planners use a variety of software tools to plan for various aspects of the power system. Current planning methods and modeling tools are stretched to their capacity as multiple objectives — including reliability, emissions, cost, equity, and land use — must be considered.

This series kicks off with a 3-part exploration focused on integrated resource planning. Motivated by a landscape assessment, we showcase two unique modeling approaches in the report below to overcoming some of the current limitations of portfolio design and evaluation tools. Article 1 in the series introduces current trends, challenges, and opportunities for modeling the future grid, drawing from reviews of recent utility integrated resource plans (IRPs). Article 2 focuses on a new approach developed by Telos Energy. Their paper, “Rethinking the role of capacity expansion modeling: An alternative approach for reliable and economic portfolio design under uncertainty,” aims to better integrate risk and uncertainty into portfolio design, recognizing the limitations of capacity expansion modeling.  Article 3, “Iterative portfolio optimization: an essential tool for reliable and clean electricity planning,” developed by Sylvan Energy Analytics, addresses the challenges of incorporating complex planning considerations, including resource adequacy and policy requirements, in capacity expansion models. The INNOVATE series is an ongoing initiative to highlight new modeling approaches aimed at overcoming current limitations to portfolio modeling and resource planning. Read all three articles at gridlab.org/innovate-modeling-series/.

Callout box: GridLab experts Elaine Hart and Derek Stenclik will present their articles in our Innovative modeling series at the ESIG Spring Technical Workshop in Austin, Texas . 

Where to Catch the GridLab Team:

GridLab in the News

In addition to the devastating fires in the Los Angeles region in January, a huge fire also broke out at the Moss Landing Power Plant on January 16th, causing the evacuation of over 1,200 people and raising major questions about protecting the health and safety of local residents and plant workers. Several news outlets quoted GridLab Executive Director Ric O’Connell and his analysis of the situation including an opinion editorial in Power Magazine on how the industry can chart a safer path forward.

Read “Building a Safer Storage Industry After the Moss Landing Fire” in Power Magazine here.

Summer Internship Applications are Open

GridLab’s summer internship program is back! We’re looking forward to expanding our summer internship program, which aims to equip the next generation of grid experts with the tools and skills they need to tackle an electrifying grid. This year we are launching an additional intern track designed for students who are nearing graduation or have recently graduated, offering a deeper and more hands-on industry experience. Over the course of 3 months, students will be provided with diverse opportunities to explore the industry, hone technical skills, and gain valuable career experience with our partners at Energy Strategies.

In addition, we will be opening the program to include other partner schools who wish to collaborate to further enrich the internship experience. If you’d like to partner with us, please contact hello@gridlab.org or visit the Careers section on our website for more information.